DUST 514: A Possible Fear

A Pessimistic Analysis

As revolutionary as the concept of Dust 514 is, I fear there are many factors that could hold the game back from being the success that it deserves to be.

One of these factors is that this is a PS3 exclusive shooter. I'm not simply talking about the obvious fact that being on more platforms will increase sales, but specifically the problems of PS3 platform. I love my PS3, but I have a theory about why Xbox360 shooters do better than PS3 shooters in sales. The theory is basically this; PS3 has so many exclusive shooters that the sales get really divided among the many titles, so none of the PS3 shooters get nearly as much individual sales as any to Xbox360 shooters.

2 week sales of recent exclusive shooters (from vgchartz)

XBOX360 SHOOTERS

Halo: Reach - 4.87 million

gears of war 3 - 3.71 million

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PS3 SHOOTERS

Killzone 3 - 821.9 thousand

Resistance 3 - 350.49 thousand

Socom 4 - 253.37 thousand

MAG - 458.25 thousand

Uncharted 2 - 1.9 million (best sales, though still behind top Xbox60 shooters in sales)

Needless to say, I'm not exactly expecting amazing sales for this game. I'm hoping I will be proven wrong, and that Dust 514 will sell millions very fast and become a hit the way Uncharted 2 was. The reason I worry about sales is not because I'm someone who measures the greatness of a game by its sales, but because having a strong player base really does matter, and even more so in a MMO where players drive the universe and economy. Killzone 3 is an example of one of the better selling exclusive PS3 shooter, and I often notice a severe lack of players at times when my brother plays it. Dust 514 will have far more players per game than Killzone 3, making the importance of a decent player base even more important. It is also a new IP which makes it even more challenging to acquire such a player base.

There is a glimmer of hope though. The concept of a persistent shooter could be so compelling that buyers take the risk. The fact that it will be a downloadable shooter makes it very accessible since players won't have to physically get up and go to a store. And lastly, the "cover charge" price is very cheap.