The Catch 22 of Dust 514?

The Catch-22 of Dust 514

"It's Deja Vu all over again!"

Y. Berra

  CCP... boy, I wish we could sit on the phone for a few minutes and talk. If we could I would tell you:
1. DUST 514 could be a really great game.
2. I applaud the scale of what you are trying to achieve.
3. I think you have overlooked a couple key issues here.
4. If this goes bad, it could go REALLY, really bad.

 Lemme just nerd out for a minute and throw some shit at the wall and see if I can paint a picture of the possible future that 514 might experience based on some stats and a bit of experience:

The first number I'll throw out is 60 million.
That's the number of player accounts on ps3 according to this site:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-01-06-how-many-psn-accounts-are-there


You guys know this already though, based on your relationship with Sony. I'm positive you've seen the data. You did your due diligence long ago before you started the white boarding of the game.
Then 24.
That's the number of game genres on the ps3 according to this site:

Another example:
76,039
that's the current online ps3 player count for BF3 at the time of this writing according to this site:
http://bf3stats.com/

Just a few more relevant numbers we need...
In 2009, EvE had 66,856 planets of which 44,351 were non gas planets according to this site:
http://eve-search.com/thread/1176423-0

Based on data from CCP so far, it appears each planet has 12 districts to fight over.
Then we divide the Planets amongst Hi, Lo and Null sec zones.

So that was stats, now let's look at theory:

How many of those folks in BF3 are in "True HARDCORE" mode? very few to none. The masses want ez mode. Take a minute and go look and you'll see. When you go to HC filter, it cuts the number of active servers down to maybe a page or two. Casual mode/EZ mode? pages and pages and pages... FF off. Mini map on. Red Dots. Auto Healing. 3d spotting. Banned weapons. Just digital babysitting at its finest. Pure garbage.

 The majority play the same CQ maps and they tend to take the easiest route to whatever the goal is, which is usually XPs and leveling and not winning. They tend to cheat a lot. They tend to use VERY lowbrow game play as a means to an end. The game play has become about as casual as possible and some rooms are literally an embarrassment to gaming. Knowing this, the majority of the gamers from the community will be found in Hi sec when given the choice in 514.

You can see it based on current in game behaviour. It's not a secret.
If we take the average online bf3 community number and divide it by the 3 sec zones, weighting it toward the Casual vs HC mode numbers on bf3,you will find that probably 30 to 50k will be in hi sec, 10-15 or so in Lo and maybe the same 5k to 7k HC clans that always show up for new releases, only to be disappointed later.

Assuming even a high of over 10k in null sec, based on the 2009 numbers of planets, there would be no need for combat. The multiverse could easily be divided up with no loss or expense
because there are so many planets and so few COGENT clans to fight over them that in the end it'll be a First Person Accounting game of folks moving money around in "diplomacy" style moves. Or more likely, some clan with numbers will soak up the other smaller ones, will go out and make the typical lowbrow mistake of conquering the other planets in the first 1 to 3 months and from there the whole thing is a single clan deadlock. Game over, everyone go home.

I think since most PS3 fps games tend to lean toward having the larger player counts vs the ps3 sports games, ps3 kids games, etc (discounting mmos which are few in number) then most ps3 fps players assume that MOST of the total community or "everyone" on the ps3 are playing in this same genre as we are.
I think WE think we have the lions share of the market. More then likely it's more evenly dispersed or more likely still, it's actually balanced away from the fps market and toward another genre probably  the kids market. We are a "niche" genre at the moment and the "hardcore competitive first person console shooter market" is even more niche. If this was not true the market would be saturated with fps games. As it is, we usually have about 3 to 4 per year, of which 1 is worth playing for any extended period of time.
The most recent game similar to 514 has long since fallen into "cult status" with barely mentionable player counts and did so shortly after retail based on unwise decisions of the devs.
You guys seem to be more committed to the core concepts of what it would take for a game the scale of 514 to succeed but that may actually be held against you later.

The question will be can you guys see your way through and not back down or out of anything you are setting up when things get tough and the forums start to smell bad and gather flies.

For the masses, you're hiding the game. These kids won't understand hi, lo and null. If you label it "ez" "medium" and "hard" you will save yourselves and them a lot of trouble.

Look at it this way: they are going to read the sign, jump in the deep end of the pool and then scream that it's YOUR fault that they drowned because "they didn't understand it was THAT deep".
The skill system is gonna confuse the CRAP out of these kids and when they spend money AND make a bad decision on the tree that they can't undo or that takes a while to recover from,
they are gonna scream that it's your fault as well. These are not folks who are willing to wait. If they paid for it, they want it to work now! Some of the bastards want it now even if they didn't pay yet. Every bad decision they make is your fault after they give you money to play your game. 'Cuz they're stupid.

But this is the ultimate problem we face and maybe some of you players can attest to it's truth:
Now it's been said I'm notorious for taking games "too seriously". I've been saying all along "your k/d says nothing about your quality" and that true teams in a real setting like 514 will come to the surface, as long as the devs don't continually hobble them with nerfs and limits to their ability to work as a team.
With 514, when you can look square at a guys or gals stat page and SEE that "Yeah, you have a 5.0 kd. you also lose about 10,000 isk per match you play. At this point, your profit margin is such that in a few matches, you should be outta gear and outta money. Oh and your win/loss is all losses and before you bitch about your team mates all sucking, your k/d is why you lost, because you were too busy going for the kill, not for the win, but as always you are too fucking stupid to understand this same concept which has been in your fucking face since BF2 came out on ps2 and you STILL can't seem to learn." that is going to change the community and is going to be WAY too much for the majority of casual gamers to comprehend and or handle.

We always knew you sucked... now we can put a dollar value to it! "Our team is worth 50k less with you on it because of your shitty earnings!" WAY too much for some of these folks to grasp.
 That's the majority of the community we are talking about here.   
Based on the mic chatter that i could hear during my time on beta, knowing that it was exactly what the real game will play like ONLY in the sense that for a moment I, just like every other casual gamer who hides in Hi sec, was thrown into a game with a bunch of randoms just like me, 514 is possibly seriously screwed.

1. You are trying to be an MMOFPS. I think this is a bad move. You need to focus on being a Persistent First Person Shooter and ignore your attempt to be an "mmo". Because without "sandbox mmo", it's just not a REAL MMO. Instanced MMO is just not the same thing. And when you guys split your genres like that, even if it's just for advertising and promo purposes,it's misleading, kinda. You are trying to please 2 markets. Instead of creating a new "species" or "branch" of fps, you are trying to blend 2 genres together and so 50% of 1 market + 50% of another market = 2 disappointed markets because it wasn't 100% "their" market. I would only categorize it as a PFPS for now and wait til you add more sandbox features to call it home. As it is, PlayStation Home is more of an  MMO then 514 at the moment.

2. The biggest problem though, is the numbers. The game requires HUGE numbers in order to work. The clans will have to be in the thousands just to function at a scale that will make planetary war worth while. If you took ALL of the current bf3 player count and dropped it on top of the eve planet count from 2009, you get roughly 1 planet per player. If the idea behind 514 is that the players will be their own "endgame" and that in game interaction between the clans IS the "storyline" to follow, that eventually 514 will rival EvE in it's rich history of player interaction, yet all this assumes that the MAJORITY of the community is up for it, uh, then Houston... we have a problem. As it stands today, the majority of the community will never SEE the parts of the game that will make it legendary, because they will be in Hi sec which will have the most players most of the time just playing random pickup matches for no real loot. And because the clans will both NEED the casuals to be present to make a match start but will also NOT want to play with them on the same team in random pickup rooms, then the casual gamers are going to tend toward hating the clans even more because of the control they have over null sec, with all it's riches just out of reach because the casual gamer can't get in a clan and once they do, they realize their clan can't get anything done because they total 28 people, most of which are casuals just like him or her.

 Case in point, the bf3 community went batshit when bf3 switched to private servers so the clans could play as teams again. And these were servers the clans were PAYING to own. Something as simple as private servers turns the whole thing into a screaming match. And yet the game circles the drain, because what good is a clan that stacks in pub rooms to beat up random casuals on non teams?

The TRUE competitive ps3 bf3 community is small enough to count in the thousands. 514 needs HUNDREDS  of thousands of players rotating in and out at all times in order to feel "alive". Once the air goes out of the tires and the kids and casuals flood Hi sec, it should turn into typical low brow stat tracking game play and all the value of the planetary stuff will get watered down if not ignored completely.
 And with Null sec being the most valuable and most risky, the casuals who enter it foolishly will pay a very harsh price. I dare say that one move in the first 3 to 6 months will be the cause of many a lost player.

So we have this giant catch 22 where potentially there is this huge game with all this diversity and challenge and teamwork and land to conquer, but the ability of the targeted market is actually below that required to make the game work on it's final intended scale. The assumption that the players will "just catch up and learn as they go" is INSANE as I've personally sat and watched for over 6 years as players came and went and clans formed and broke up and reformed and out of thousands of people maybe 5 or 6 actually got better at gaming or teamwork because they learned something along the way that wasn't a new glitch or low brow tactic. The middle of the Bell Curve is thick for a reason. Most folks can't get out of it in the right direction. 514 will not make them any better by virtue of its existence, yet the need to BE better at any given moment for the game to succeed, the expectation, will be higher because folks will now have money riding on it, not just ego. and some folks, REAL money. Fuck that up and see how fast your friends list empties out. So the game increases the pressure as relates to the NEED to do well in a match or for a team to be "good", but again, the market is the same average market, the pool is the same average pool of players to choose from. The consequences for sucking have changed, but not the player pool. The good players and teams already know each other and know their fishbowl. That group is small. It stays small from game to game because the majority of people don't get better, they stay average from game to game. Just because the game got better as a game doesn't mean the players are better for it. "Same AI, different beta"

You throw in the new grind style for the skill tree and maybe even realize that we are still only really talking about Hi sec here and that when it comes to Null sec and the fact that not only are the clans encouraged to run the show but are mostly immune from any punishment for "bad" behavior, then the casual team vs the clan random match  becomes the very exact point of departure for some folks who may even stick around temporarily to see the match unfold just to see what a REAL team is, but permaquit the game after the ego destroying ass whipping handed down by some clan that actually has half a brain. More likely the casual gamer will view it as Null sec being the place where clans can be sanctioned assholes and anything that works goes and basically Null will turn into Pub Stack zone. Game called on account of douchebaggery, everybody go home. Nothing to see here.

I think CCP is not only asking an awful lot from the clans that is not apparent yet but worse, they are EXPECTING too much from the MAJORITY of the casual fps gaming community, which on the ps3, isn't really  what you would consider epic in numbers enough to match the potential for the game.

You've made a game so big and so beautiful that most of the people you made it for may be incapable of doing well at it and the ones that will, will number in the thousands, small enough to split up the multiverse over a couple meetings in Skype without firing a single shot.

I hope I'm wrong on this, I really do because I would like the game to last and be as successful if not more successful then EvE. As a player I plan on supporting it fully as long as it supports the community. I'm just hoping there is enough real community here for you guys to support.

Peace
B